It is the most significant moment in US politics in decades – and history tells us Trump will be on his way back to the White House

Political strategists often talk about campaigns in terms of “moments”.

They are points in time that irrevocably change the political landscape, forcing those involved to adapt their behaviour to a new baseline.

The attempt on Donald Trump’s life on Saturday night is the most significant moment in decades.

In the seconds after gunshots rang out across the showground where the Republican nominee was addressing his supporters, it became clear that everything had changed.

Moments after his brush with death, the former president raised a fist in defiance, his lips forming a single word: “Fight.”

This is the first credible assassination threat on an American president’s life since Ronald Reagan was shot in March 1981.

Other more feeble attempts have been made – not least against Trump, who has been the target of at least three previous plots. Several more would-be assailants have planned to kill Joe Biden.

The constant threat of violent death is something of an occupational hazard for American commanders-in-chief, and four sitting presidents have succumbed to it.

Nonetheless, there is no denying that this incident will have a significant impact on this year’s presidential race.

Trump has built his campaign on the idea that everyone is out to get him. Federal prosecutors, judges, election officials, rival politicians and journalists have all been accused of trying to bring down his campaign and prevent his return to the White House.

Many of those claims have rightly been contested. But after the incident in Pennsylvania, even Trump’s worst enemies cannot deny that there are some who would rather see him dead than re-elected.

Like Reagan, Trump can expect a poll boost
The polls already suggest that Trump is likely to win back the presidency in November, after a torrid few months for his opponent and a criminal conviction that has had little impact on his popularity.